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$13.6 billion in Bitcoin options are set to expire this Friday, can bullish forces push the price of BTC above $100,000?

Bitcoin’s Big Moment: Will Bulls Push Price Above $100,000?

With a total exposure of $13.6 billion, the November options expiry is set to be Bitcoin’s largest monthly event of 2024. As we approach the crucial deadline on November 29, it’s essential to assess the impact of call (buy) and put (sell) options on Bitcoin’s price.

S&P 500 Struggles to Maintain Levels Above 6,000

The S&P 500 has been experiencing a rough patch over the past three weeks, struggling to maintain levels above 6,000. This trend is a reflection of growing investor caution, which is also evident in the United States five-year Treasury yield. The yield has declined from 4.35% on November 15 to its current level of 4.12%.

Investors Prioritize Government Bonds’ Relative Safety

The shift in sentiment among investors is quite noticeable. With inflation concerns looming large, they are increasingly prioritizing government bonds’ relative safety over riskier assets. This phenomenon is a common occurrence during periods of macroeconomic uncertainty.

Bitcoin’s Resilience Amid Inflation Concerns

Despite the growing caution among investors, Bitcoin has shown remarkable resilience in recent times. The 5% rebound from its $90,775 low on November 26 suggests that confidence remains strong, especially with gains of 34% over the last 30 days.

Research Notes: Pantheon Macroeconomics and Barclays

In a research note dated November 27, economists at Pantheon Macroeconomics warned that US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation could rise above 3% if President-elect Donald Trump implements import tariffs. Separately, Barclays analysts remarked on the uncertainty surrounding temporary tariffs, stating that they create natural incentives to delay investments.

Deribit’s November Options Expiry: A Detailed Analysis

From a broader perspective, Bitcoin call (buy) options for November 29 hold an aggregate notional value of $7.4 billion on Deribit, CME, OKX, Binance, and Bybit, surpassing the $6.2 billion in open interest for put (sell) options by 19%. This disparity is narrower than typical trends, as crypto traders often lean bullish.

Notable Observation: Strike Prices at or Above $100,000

Notably, only 20% of call options have strike prices at or above $100,000, representing $4.25 billion in notional value for the November expiry. In contrast, less than 2% of put options target $100,000 or higher, effectively rendering most of them worthless and reducing their notional value to about $80 million.

Bitcoin Call (Buy) Options Favor Bulls

The following are four probable scenarios for Deribit exchange based on current price trends. The availability of call and put options for the Nov 28 expiration will depend on Bitcoin’s settlement price at 8:00 am UTC.

Scenario 1: Between $86,000 and $90,000

The net outcome favors the call (buy) options by $1.65 billion.

Scenario 2: Between $90,000 and $94,000

The net outcome favors the call (buy) options by $2.6 billion.

Scenario 3: Between $94,000 and $98,000

The net outcome favors the call (buy) options by $3.55 billion.

Scenario 4: Between $98,000 and $102,000

The net result favors the call (buy) options by $4.58 billion.

Bears Face Substantial Pressure

Given these scenarios, it’s clear that bears face substantial pressure to drive Bitcoin’s price below $90,000 before the November options expiry to prevent call options from prevailing.

Will Prices Reach $100,000 or Higher Soon?

However, Bitcoin’s resilience amid inflation concerns suggests that prices could reach $100,000 or higher soon after these BTC options expire. This is an exciting time for investors and traders alike, as they await the outcome of this pivotal event.

Disclaimer

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

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