The Holiday Period Has Ended, but Canadian Politics Remain Gripped by a Single Question: When Will Justin Trudeau Speak?
The holiday season may be over, but the Canadian public remains on tenterhooks waiting for an announcement from Prime Minister Justin Trudeau. For weeks now, Liberal lawmakers have been urging him to make way for new leadership as the party’s popularity continues to slide.
A Quiet Holiday Season for Trudeau
Trudeau spent much of the holidays at a ski resort in western Canada, and according to sources familiar with his schedule, he has no plans for any official events or appearances by the end of the week. This lack of activity has only added fuel to the fire, as anxious Liberals continue to press him to quit.
A Precarious Government
The Trudeau government’s hold on parliament is precarious at best. The three largest opposition parties have promised to vote "no confidence" if he doesn’t step down soon. If they do, it will trigger a snap election, which would be disastrous for the party.
The Impact of Delaying Leadership Transition
Nik Nanos, founder of Nanos Research, believes that the longer Trudeau waits to address both his party and the country, the more he risks provoking a Liberal rebellion. "Until now, it was primarily Justin Trudeau’s personal brand that was damaged," said Nanos. "I think now the big issue is how much damage will he inflict on the party brand because he is dragging out what looks like will be his resignation at one point or another."
The Polls Are Not Looking Good
The latest polling numbers from Nanos Research suggest that if an election were held today, the Liberals would lose most of their 153 seats. The party has launched pre-election advertising, focusing on concern that Conservatives will cut social programs.
A Leadership Race May Be in the Cards
A Liberal leadership race may take three months to run – under different circumstances, it would take even longer. Even if the Liberals are able to avoid a forced election during a leadership contest, the winner would have a relatively short period of time, maybe only weeks, before being thrown into a national campaign.
Trudeau’s Position Weakens by the Day
"A politically wounded prime minister is not really in a very strong position to negotiate anything with someone like Donald Trump," said Nanos. Regardless of what happens next, the Liberal Party faces a difficult road ahead.
A Brief History of the Liberals
The Liberal Party has dominated Canadian federal politics since the Second World War. However, even with a new leader, the party would need a major turnaround in public opinion to save most of its seats, much less hold onto government.
The Worst Showing in National Elections
The Liberals’ worst showing in any national election was in 2011, when they won 19% of the popular vote and just 34 seats. About two years later, they chose Trudeau as their new leader, who "took the Liberals out of the wilderness." However, it may be that he will return them to the political wilderness at the end of the next federal election.
A Challenging Road Ahead
The Liberal Party’s future hangs in the balance, and it remains to be seen whether they can recover from their current slump. One thing is certain: Trudeau’s decision to stay or go has significant implications for both his party and the country as a whole.
